Replay of 2025-26

Daily mean absolute error of the model and of the last-10-game baseline, replaying the nightly slate for 164 game dates from 2025-10-21 to 2026-04-12 using only games played before each date. Population: every replayed player-game with a box score and a last-10 baseline for every target (all rows) (26,031 rows). This is the all-rows population, not the training population behind the headline holdout table (at least 10 minutes, both baselines defined); on all rows the last-10 baseline has the lower season MAE on every target.

Points, row-weighted season MAE (all rows)
model 4.864 · baseline 4.679
Rebounds, row-weighted season MAE (all rows)
model 2.023 · baseline 1.939
Assists, row-weighted season MAE (all rows)
model 1.403 · baseline 1.374

Season figures: gold/mart_holdout_metrics.json in the dataset repo (the warehouse's gold export, exported 2026-10-25 on target motherduck), population all. Daily chart: gold/mart_daily_metrics.json in the dataset repo (the warehouse's gold export, exported 2026-10-25 on target motherduck). The warehouse test assert_daily_metrics_reconcile_to_all_rows_report holds these rows to the committed report day by day.

Replayed slate: 2026-04-12

Replay, not live: each date's slate was rebuilt in the backtest from games played before that date, with the pinned model; actuals come from the stored game logs. 164 dates are published; pick one to browse it.

15 games, 477 slated players, 301 with a box score, 176 did not play. Predictions were made with model commit 50a3b2e / HF fb427de on dataset 11edbe0 from games before 2026-04-12.

Games on 2026-04-12

  • ORL @ BOS31 slated · 17 played
  • WAS @ CLE31 slated · 18 played
  • DET @ IND33 slated · 24 played
  • ATL @ MIA34 slated · 20 played
  • CHA @ NYK32 slated · 22 played
  • MIL @ PHI31 slated · 23 played
  • BKN @ TOR32 slated · 23 played
  • CHI @ DAL30 slated · 19 played
  • MEM @ HOU30 slated · 17 played
  • NOP @ MIN34 slated · 15 played
  • PHX @ OKC34 slated · 16 played
  • DEN @ SAN34 slated · 21 played
  • UTA @ LAL29 slated · 21 played
  • GSW @ LAC34 slated · 23 played
  • SAC @ POR28 slated · 22 played

MAE on 2026-04-12 (replay)

Population: rows with actuals and a last-10 baseline for every target (301 rows).

Points
model 6.020 · baseline 6.672
Rebounds
model 2.261 · baseline 2.361
Assists
model 1.721 · baseline 1.813

Predicted vs actual

Luka DoncicLALvs UTADNP31.4––8.1––8.1––
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKCvs PHXDNP29.5––4.6––6.8––
Devin BookerPHX@ OKCDNP28.4––4.1––6.2––
Nikola JokicDEN@ SAN18.128.423−5.411.98−3.99.41−8.4
Joel EmbiidPHIvs MILDNP28.1––8.8––4.8––
Donovan MitchellCLEvs WASDNP27.7––4.7––5.5––
Jaylen BrownBOSvs ORLDNP27.5––7.0––5.0––
Tyrese MaxeyPHIvs MIL26.627.221−6.23.92−1.95.71−4.7
Anthony EdwardsMINvs NOPDNP27.2––5.1––4.0––
Stephen CurryGSW@ LAC28.426.524−2.53.46+2.65.53−2.5
Kevin DurantHOUvs MEMDNP26.2––5.6––5.6––
Jamal MurrayDEN@ SANDNP25.7––3.9––6.5––
Jalen BrunsonNYKvs CHADNP25.3––3.2––9.6––
Cooper FlaggDALvs CHI9.624.510−14.56.64−2.65.31−4.3
Deni AvdijaPORvs SAC33.024.425+0.66.66−0.67.010+3.0
Victor WembanyamaSANvs DENDNP24.4––12.8––4.3––
Kawhi LeonardLACvs GSWDNP24.0––6.6––3.6––
Jayson TatumBOSvs ORLDNP23.7––9.5––5.7––
James HardenCLEvs WASDNP22.8––4.7––8.2––
Pascal SiakamINDvs DETDNP22.8––6.5––4.0––
LaMelo BallCHA@ NYK29.122.619−3.64.97+2.17.46−1.4
Paolo BancheroORL@ BOS37.521.923+1.17.410+2.64.811+6.2
Jeremiah FearsNOP@ MIN41.221.536+14.53.810+6.25.65−0.6
Karl-Anthony TownsNYKvs CHADNP21.5––10.5––4.3––
Jalen JohnsonATL@ MIADNP21.4––8.9––6.5––
Tyler HerroMIAvs ATL22.221.35−16.34.710+5.34.88+3.2
LeBron JamesLALvs UTA16.321.118−3.06.54−2.58.46−2.4
Cade CunninghamDET@ IND21.521.07−14.05.28+2.89.114+4.9
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL@ MIADNP20.9––3.5––3.6––
Brice SensabaughUTA@ LAL13.120.915−5.93.82−1.84.01−3.0
Bam AdebayoMIAvs ATL29.120.725+4.39.510+0.54.33−1.3
Brandon IngramTORvs BKN32.020.625+4.35.19+3.93.82−1.8
Alperen SengunHOUvs MEMDNP20.5––8.1––6.0––
Austin ReavesLALvs UTADNP20.5––4.2––5.0––
Jalen DurenDET@ INDDNP20.1––10.3––3.0––
RJ BarrettTORvs BKN28.420.026+6.05.33−2.33.72−1.7
Stephon CastleSANvs DEN29.319.910−9.96.111+4.98.09+1.0
Zion WilliamsonNOP@ MINDNP19.8––5.4––2.9––
CJ McCollumATL@ MIADNP19.4––3.2––4.7––
Trey Murphy IIINOP@ MINDNP19.4––5.2––3.5––
Evan MobleyCLEvs WASDNP19.3––9.8––3.4––
Brandon MillerCHA@ NYK27.219.119−0.14.93−1.93.22−1.2
Paul GeorgePHIvs MIL21.218.911−7.95.25−0.23.72−1.7
Amen ThompsonHOUvs MEMDNP18.9––8.0––5.3––
Desmond BaneORL@ BOS17.318.78−10.74.12−2.14.11−3.1
Darius GarlandLACvs GSW26.418.715−3.72.81−1.86.16−0.1
Julius RandleMINvs NOPDNP18.7––6.1––4.3––
Saddiq BeyNOP@ MINDNP18.7––5.4––2.7––
De'Aaron FoxSANvs DEN33.218.724+5.33.86+2.26.55−1.4
Shaedon SharpePORvs SAC16.618.59−9.54.11−3.12.54+1.5
Will RileyWAS@ CLE34.218.46−12.44.05+0.94.04+0.1
Franz WagnerORL@ BOS26.118.320+1.74.74−0.72.91−1.9
Tre JonesCHI@ DAL19.218.26−12.23.63−0.65.92−3.9
Jalen GreenPHX@ OKCDNP18.1––3.7––3.0––
Jrue HolidayPORvs SAC32.318.023+5.04.87+2.26.43−3.4
Dillon BrooksPHX@ OKCDNP17.9––3.8––1.9––
VJ EdgecombePHIvs MIL31.117.89−8.85.67+1.44.811+6.2
Payton PritchardBOSvs ORLDNP17.8––3.6––5.2––
Jalen WilliamsOKCvs PHXDNP17.7––4.5––5.7––
Ryan RollinsMIL@ PHIDNP17.7––4.2––5.8––
Ace BaileyUTA@ LAL29.217.615−2.64.73−1.72.31−1.3
DeMar DeRozanSAC@ PORDNP17.4––3.0––4.9––
OG AnunobyNYKvs CHADNP17.3––5.3––2.3––
Norman PowellMIAvs ATL22.517.125+7.93.42−1.42.32−0.3
Collin SextonCHI@ DAL28.217.119+1.93.33−0.33.61−2.6
Matas BuzelisCHI@ DALDNP17.1––6.4––2.1––
Jarrett AllenCLEvs WASDNP17.0––9.1––1.7––
Chet HolmgrenOKCvs PHXDNP17.0––8.6––1.6––
Dejounte MurrayNOP@ MINDNP16.8––5.1––5.4––
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIAvs ATL25.416.726+9.34.61−3.65.35−0.3
Kyle FilipowskiUTA@ LALDNP16.6––8.8––4.3––
Miles BridgesCHA@ NYK24.116.57−9.56.11−5.12.92−0.9
Ayo DosunmuMINvs NOPDNP16.4––4.8––4.4––
Kristaps PorzingisGSW@ LAC24.016.212−4.25.58+2.52.51−1.6
Jabari Smith Jr.HOUvs MEMDNP16.2––6.3––1.9––
Immanuel QuickleyTORvs BKN16.416.04−12.03.42−1.45.55−0.5
Andrew NembhardINDvs DETDNP15.9––2.6––8.7––
Gui SantosGSW@ LAC16.315.97−8.94.77+2.34.22−2.2
Brandin PodziemskiGSW@ LAC21.015.910−5.94.84−0.83.92−1.9
Kon KnueppelCHA@ NYK31.115.914−1.95.16+0.93.45+1.6
Scottie BarnesTORvs BKN31.615.918+2.16.112+5.96.012+6.0
Naji MarshallDALvs CHIDNP15.8––4.5––3.7––
Bennedict MathurinLACvs GSW32.115.820+4.24.99+4.12.28+5.8
Jaden McDanielsMINvs NOPDNP15.8––4.4––2.5––
Andrew WigginsMIAvs ATL25.415.64−11.64.72−2.72.52−0.5
Jerami GrantPORvs SACDNP15.5––3.4––1.8––
Aaron GordonDEN@ SANDNP15.4––5.4––3.0––
Toumani CamaraPORvs SAC33.315.415−0.44.84−0.82.72−0.7
Cody WilliamsUTA@ LAL39.115.314−1.34.03−1.05.56+0.5
Peyton WatsonDEN@ SANDNP15.2––4.4––2.4––
Josh GiddeyCHI@ DALDNP15.0––7.9––8.4––
Grayson AllenPHX@ OKCDNP14.9––3.0––3.1––
Maxime RaynaudSAC@ POR37.214.921+6.19.39−0.31.82+0.2
Derrick WhiteBOSvs ORLDNP14.8––3.7––4.4––
GG JacksonMEM@ HOUDNP14.8––4.4––1.8––
Coby WhiteCHA@ NYK16.214.719+4.33.21−2.23.62−1.6
Scoot HendersonPORvs SAC27.114.715+0.32.82−0.84.34−0.3
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHIvs MIL23.114.611−3.65.45−0.41.61−0.6
Devin VassellSANvs DEN33.114.419+4.64.34−0.32.72−0.7
Keldon JohnsonSANvs DEN21.514.418+3.64.76+1.31.81−0.8
Jarace WalkerINDvs DETDNP14.3––5.6––3.6––
Nique CliffordSAC@ POR38.514.324+9.74.67+2.45.05+0.0
AJ GreenMIL@ PHI36.214.319+4.73.35+1.72.71−1.7
Kennedy ChandlerUTA@ LALDNP14.3––3.7––5.4––
Brandon WilliamsDALvs CHIDNP14.2––2.9––4.8––
Dylan HarperSANvs DEN18.214.29−5.23.73−0.74.71−3.6
Alex SarrWAS@ CLEDNP14.2––6.4––2.1––
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM@ HOUDNP14.2––4.1––1.2––
P.J. WashingtonDALvs CHIDNP14.0––6.7––1.6––
Cormac RyanMIL@ PHI38.114.022+8.02.610+7.41.94+2.1
John CollinsLACvs GSW20.414.018+4.05.99+3.11.30−1.3
Aaron NesmithINDvs DETDNP13.9––3.1––1.6––
Precious AchiuwaSAC@ POR35.013.927+13.18.311+2.71.64+2.4
Jalen SuggsORL@ BOS37.613.923+9.13.96+2.15.63−2.6
Moses MoodyGSW@ LACDNP13.9––3.5––2.0––
Leonard MillerCHI@ DAL34.413.817+3.27.27−0.21.82+0.2
Cameron JohnsonDEN@ SANDNP13.7––4.1––2.8––
Cedric CowardMEM@ HOUDNP13.6––5.2––2.4––
Onyeka OkongwuATL@ MIADNP13.5––6.8––2.6––
Pelle LarssonMIAvs ATLDNP13.5––3.8––3.8––
Mikal BridgesNYKvs CHA0.213.30−13.33.20−3.23.50−3.5
Tobias HarrisDET@ IND21.513.324+10.75.24−1.22.71−1.7
Duncan RobinsonDET@ IND21.413.39−4.32.72−0.72.42−0.4
Dyson DanielsATL@ MIADNP13.3––7.4––5.3––
Reed SheppardHOUvs MEM25.513.219+5.83.04+1.03.63−0.6
Naz ReidMINvs NOPDNP13.2––5.6––1.9––
Bones HylandMINvs NOPDNP13.1––2.7––3.6––
Obi ToppinINDvs DET18.113.021+8.05.42−3.42.72−0.7
Bub CarringtonWAS@ CLE37.413.020+7.02.92−0.95.39+3.6
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL@ BOS31.012.93−9.96.88+1.21.82+0.2
Kyle KuzmaMIL@ PHIDNP12.9––4.2––2.8––
Daniss JenkinsDET@ IND19.112.92−10.93.15+1.96.54−2.5
Bilal CoulibalyWAS@ CLEDNP12.8––4.1––2.5––
Josh HartNYKvs CHADNP12.8––7.0––4.3––
Julian ReeseWAS@ CLE18.112.814+1.29.93−6.92.10−2.1
Devin CarterSAC@ POR34.212.88−4.84.36+1.73.98+4.1
Donovan ClinganPORvs SAC23.512.713+0.311.210−1.22.01−1.0
Ousmane DiengMIL@ PHI40.512.611−1.64.87+2.24.58+3.5
Quentin GrimesPHIvs MIL27.612.520+7.53.23−0.22.35+2.7
Rayan RupertMEM@ HOU41.412.521+8.55.212+6.82.15+2.9
Taurean PrinceMIL@ PHI32.012.514+1.53.85+1.22.52−0.5
Blake HinsonUTA@ LAL25.412.510−2.52.66+3.41.42+0.6
Luke KennardLALvs UTA11.212.53−9.53.50−3.54.21−3.2
Brook LopezLACvs GSW22.512.47−5.45.28+2.82.00−2.0
Sandro MamukelashviliTORvs BKN17.412.49−3.45.33−2.32.23+0.8
Derik QueenNOP@ MIN41.012.430+17.66.322+15.73.84+0.3
Christian BraunDEN@ SANDNP12.4––4.7––2.5––
Deandre AytonLALvs UTA25.412.422+9.67.010+3.01.01−0.0
Neemias QuetaBOSvs ORLDNP12.3––8.6––2.1––
Marvin Bagley IIIDALvs CHIDNP12.3––6.2––1.5––
Quenton JacksonINDvs DET29.412.321+8.73.20−3.24.18+3.9
Ajay MitchellOKCvs PHXDNP12.3––3.0––3.3––
Tyson EtienneBKN@ TOR36.512.220+7.82.21−1.22.64+1.4
Julian ChampagnieSANvs DEN25.212.17−5.15.64−1.62.11−1.1
De'Anthony MeltonGSW@ LAC19.012.14−8.13.83−0.82.72−0.7
Isaiah JoeOKCvs PHXDNP12.0––2.5––1.3––
Gary Payton IIGSW@ LAC12.011.92−9.94.72−2.72.01−1.0
Sam MerrillCLEvs WASDNP11.9––2.9––2.8––
Donte DiVincenzoMINvs NOP7.311.93−8.93.41−2.43.13−0.1
Myles TurnerMIL@ PHIDNP11.9––4.8––1.4––
Jordan PooleNOP@ MINDNP11.9––2.5––2.9––
Klay ThompsonDALvs CHI10.111.712+0.32.10−2.11.61−0.6
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM@ HOUDNP11.7––2.5––7.1––
Tre JohnsonWAS@ CLEDNP11.7––2.9––1.9––
Rui HachimuraLALvs UTA28.611.722+10.33.510+6.51.20−1.2
Jonathan KumingaATL@ MIADNP11.6––5.0––2.1––
Davion MitchellMIAvs ATL25.411.512+0.53.02−1.06.81−5.8
Max ChristieDALvs CHI12.311.512+0.53.01−2.01.91−0.8
Toby OkaniMEM@ HOU40.511.56−5.52.97+4.11.61−0.6
Anthony BlackORL@ BOS19.011.513+1.53.23−0.22.71−1.7
Malik MonkSAC@ PORDNP11.4––2.0––3.3––
Ja'Kobe WalterTORvs BKN24.111.411−0.43.60−3.61.81−0.8
Josh OduroNOP@ MIN31.211.44−7.47.06−1.01.22+0.8
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN@ SANDNP11.4––2.4––1.6––
Micah PotterINDvs DET34.211.315+3.75.811+5.21.52+0.5
Ziaire WilliamsBKN@ TORDNP11.3––2.4––1.4––
Jay HuffINDvs DET23.611.313+1.74.53−1.52.33+0.7
Kel'el WareMIAvs ATL29.111.316+4.88.07−1.01.31−0.3
Jaden HardyWAS@ CLE16.211.26−5.21.91−0.91.63+1.4
Jakob PoeltlTORvs BKN19.111.211−0.26.85−1.81.92+0.1
Jaylon TysonCLEvs WAS25.611.218+6.84.46+1.62.13+0.9
Justin ChampagnieWAS@ CLE31.611.213+1.86.16−0.11.53+1.5
Collin Murray-BoylesTORvs BKN13.211.22−9.25.12−3.11.92+0.1
Mark WilliamsPHX@ OKCDNP11.1––7.7––1.0––
Daeqwon PlowdenSAC@ POR22.111.18−3.13.31−2.31.72+0.3
Gary Trent Jr.MIL@ PHIDNP11.0––1.8––1.7––
Dariq WhiteheadMEM@ HOU39.111.026+15.04.04−0.01.61−0.6
Adama BalMEM@ HOUDNP11.0––3.5––2.5––
Daniel GaffordDALvs CHIDNP10.9––7.1––1.2––
Tristan da SilvaORL@ BOS23.410.98−2.93.76+2.31.92+0.1
Rudy GobertMINvs NOPDNP10.9––11.6––1.5––
Josh MinottBKN@ TORDNP10.9––3.3––1.2––
Jaxson HayesLALvs UTADNP10.8––4.8––1.2––
Jordan MillerLACvs GSW29.110.814+3.23.24+0.82.76+3.3
Rob DillinghamCHI@ DAL29.610.825+14.23.25+1.82.45+2.6
Anthony GillWAS@ CLE29.510.814+3.23.86+2.22.00−2.0
Nolan TraoreBKN@ TORDNP10.8––2.4––3.9––
Sam HauserBOSvs ORLDNP10.8––4.1––1.8––
E.J. LiddellBKN@ TOR27.210.817+6.24.44−0.41.81−0.8
Kevin HuerterDET@ IND20.210.815+4.23.42−1.43.13−0.1
Ben SarafBKN@ TOR26.210.815+4.22.93+0.14.34−0.3
Tristan VukcevicWAS@ CLEDNP10.8––3.8––1.4––
Jared McCainOKCvs PHX24.510.89−1.82.24+1.81.52+0.5
Jonas ValanciunasDEN@ SAN18.610.716+5.36.911+4.11.84+2.2
Ethan ThompsonINDvs DET38.110.718+7.33.63−0.62.16+3.9
Max StrusCLEvs WAS17.510.610−0.65.15−0.12.32−0.3
Ausar ThompsonDET@ IND21.410.67−3.65.45−0.44.54−0.5
Kobe BrownINDvs DET34.310.620+9.44.27+2.82.42−0.4
Nic ClaxtonBKN@ TORDNP10.6––6.6––2.6––
Collin GillespiePHX@ OKCDNP10.6––3.6––3.8––
Lucas WilliamsonMEM@ HOU34.510.515+4.55.16+0.92.53+0.5
Malachi SmithBKN@ TOR35.310.58−2.53.85+1.23.76+2.3
Javon SmallMEM@ HOU25.510.418+7.63.23−0.23.51−2.5
Jalen WilsonBKN@ TOR26.210.49−1.43.58+4.51.73+1.3
Luka GarzaBOSvs ORL38.010.427+16.64.912+7.11.31−0.3
Tyler BurtonMEM@ HOUDNP10.3––3.6––1.2––
Cam SpencerMEM@ HOUDNP10.3––2.7––5.9––
Gradey DickTORvs BKN5.210.23−7.23.20−3.21.70−1.7
Nikola VucevicBOSvs ORLDNP10.2––6.8––2.4––
Bez MbengUTA@ LAL48.010.114+3.94.14−0.14.39+4.8
Tari EasonHOUvs MEM23.510.120+9.96.28+1.81.33+1.7
Jordan HawkinsNOP@ MIN32.510.113+2.92.75+2.31.63+1.4
Jamir WatkinsWAS@ CLE34.210.124+13.94.84−0.81.93+1.1
Dennis SchroderCLEvs WASDNP10.0––2.7––5.1––
Svi MykhailiukUTA@ LALDNP10.0––2.5––1.8––
Guerschon YabuseleCHI@ DALDNP10.0––5.6––1.6––
Caleb LovePORvs SAC1.49.90−9.92.20−2.22.40−2.4
Thomas BryantCLEvs WASDNP9.9––6.2––0.9––
Simone FontecchioMIAvs ATLDNP9.9––3.1––1.5––
Tyler KolekNYKvs CHADNP9.9––2.4––3.9––
Tyrese ProctorCLEvs WAS34.49.822+12.21.811+9.22.48+5.6
Noah ClowneyBKN@ TORDNP9.8––3.6––1.3––
Isaac OkoroCHI@ DALDNP9.8––3.0––1.8––
Nate WilliamsGSW@ LAC12.39.89−0.82.62−0.61.51−0.5
LJ CryerGSW@ LACDNP9.8––2.4––1.6––
Sharife CooperWAS@ CLE28.19.720+10.32.42−0.44.26+1.8
Jalen SmithCHI@ DALDNP9.7––6.2––1.1––
Marcus SmartLALvs UTA26.29.75−4.72.72−0.73.010+7.0
Corey KispertATL@ MIA28.39.721+11.32.33+0.71.52+0.5
Pete NanceMIL@ PHIDNP9.6––3.9––1.9––
Oscar TshiebweUTA@ LAL32.09.629+19.47.617+9.41.43+1.6
Keon EllisCLEvs WASDNP9.6––2.7––1.7––
John KoncharUTA@ LAL27.49.64−5.66.57+0.64.62−2.6
Ronald Holland IIDET@ IND20.39.63−6.53.55+1.51.32+0.7
Jock LandaleATL@ MIADNP9.6––4.7––1.7––
Patrick WilliamsCHI@ DAL35.49.513+3.53.94+0.12.15+2.9
Jericho SimsMIL@ PHI31.29.515+5.57.87−0.84.13−1.1
Ryan NembhardDALvs CHI38.29.515+5.53.29+5.86.223+16.8
Terrence Shannon Jr.MINvs NOP34.49.526+16.52.14+1.91.65+3.4
Derrick Jones Jr.LACvs GSW20.59.50−9.53.94+0.11.60−1.6
Al HorfordGSW@ LAC18.49.55−4.55.14−1.13.02−0.9
Bruce BrownDEN@ SAN28.19.514+4.53.94+0.12.55+2.5
Miles McBrideNYKvs CHA24.29.521+11.52.13+0.92.31−1.3
Jamal CainORL@ BOS15.49.42−7.43.72−1.71.40−1.4
Tre MannCHA@ NYK4.29.40−9.42.40−2.42.00−2.0
Isaiah StewartDET@ IND16.49.416+6.64.85+0.21.20−1.2
Jalen SlawsonINDvs DET27.19.32−7.34.72−2.72.64+1.4
Kobe SandersLACvs GSW22.49.311+1.72.43+0.61.82+0.2
Paul ReedDET@ IND21.49.326+16.75.26+0.81.53+1.5
T.J. McConnellINDvs DETDNP9.3––2.4––4.8––
Jordan ClarksonNYKvs CHA15.49.32−7.32.23+0.81.90−1.9
Pat SpencerGSW@ LAC19.29.27−2.22.73+0.33.83−0.8
Seth CurryGSW@ LAC12.19.26−3.21.91−0.91.32+0.7
Jose AlvaradoNYKvs CHA33.59.216+6.82.75+2.34.37+2.7
Javonte GreenDET@ IND11.59.26−3.13.53−0.51.41−0.4
Royce O'NealePHX@ OKCDNP9.1––3.9––2.2––
Jahmai MashackMEM@ HOU38.29.111+1.93.71−2.73.211+7.8
Jordan GoodwinPHX@ OKCDNP9.1––4.7––2.0––
Aaron WigginsOKCvs PHX26.69.03−6.02.82−0.81.45+3.6
Harrison BarnesSANvs DEN25.19.012+3.02.41−1.41.71−0.7
Taylor HendricksMEM@ HOUDNP9.0––4.5––1.1––
DaQuan JeffriesSAC@ PORDNP9.0––2.6––0.9––
Cason WallaceOKCvs PHXDNP9.0––2.9––2.5––
Dalton KnechtLALvs UTA12.08.917+8.13.12−1.11.04+3.0
Elijah HarklessUTA@ LALDNP8.9––2.6––3.6––
Draymond GreenGSW@ LACDNP8.9––5.1––6.3––
Julian StrawtherDEN@ SAN34.28.925+16.12.36+3.71.43+1.6
Jaylen ClarkMINvs NOP30.38.88−0.82.83+0.21.62+0.4
Branden CarlsonOKCvs PHX42.18.826+17.24.910+5.11.21−0.2
Quinten PostGSW@ LACDNP8.8––4.4––1.6––
Khris MiddletonDALvs CHI5.48.78−0.73.21−2.22.31−1.3
Jake LaRaviaLALvs UTA24.58.72−6.74.34−0.32.03+0.9
Luguentz DortOKCvs PHX20.18.76−2.73.21−2.21.31−0.3
Drake PowellBKN@ TOR25.18.78−0.72.51−1.51.70−1.7
Jase RichardsonORL@ BOSDNP8.6––2.6––1.6––
Jamison BattleTORvs BKN5.28.62−6.63.10−3.11.00−1.0
Goga BitadzeORL@ BOS16.28.65−3.65.77+1.31.81−0.8
Mohamed DiawaraNYKvs CHA33.58.55−3.52.24+1.81.66+4.4
Zaccharie RisacherATL@ MIA23.68.511+2.53.69+5.40.93+2.1
Ben SheppardINDvs DETDNP8.5––2.8––1.8––
Justin EdwardsPHIvs MIL22.38.517+8.52.11−1.11.62+0.4
Chaney JohnsonBKN@ TOR36.28.516+7.54.013+9.02.22−0.2
Joan BeringerMINvs NOP31.28.424+15.64.613+8.40.92+1.1
Moussa DiabateCHA@ NYK26.08.44−4.48.99+0.12.23+0.8
Landry ShametNYKvs CHADNP8.4––2.0––1.4––
David RoddyDEN@ SAN33.38.315+6.73.013+10.01.02+1.0
John PoulakidasDALvs CHI36.08.328+19.72.92−0.91.04+3.0
Matisse ThybullePORvs SAC7.18.35−3.32.81−1.81.50−1.5
Carter BryantSANvs DEN30.28.213+4.83.95+1.11.45+3.6
Trevon ScottBKN@ TOR26.08.28−0.24.33−1.31.51−0.5
Ochai AgbajiBKN@ TORDNP8.2––3.0––1.0––
Mac McClungCHI@ DAL18.08.213+4.81.90−1.91.90−1.9
Jabari WalkerPHIvs MIL7.38.17−1.14.12−2.11.10−1.1
Nick Smith Jr.LALvs UTA17.38.112+3.92.00−2.01.71−0.7
Herbert JonesNOP@ MINDNP8.1––3.0––2.5––
Moritz WagnerORL@ BOSDNP8.0––4.6––1.1––
Trendon WatfordPHIvs MIL6.38.02−6.03.90−3.92.71−1.7
Keshad JohnsonMIAvs ATL25.28.012+4.03.94+0.10.93+2.1
Mitchell RobinsonNYKvs CHADNP8.0––8.9––1.0––
Jett HowardORL@ BOSDNP8.0––2.4––1.1––
Charles BasseyGSW@ LAC18.48.016+8.07.03−4.00.82+1.2
Marcus SasserDET@ IND7.07.93−4.91.70−1.72.70−2.7
Yves MissiNOP@ MINDNP7.9––6.9––1.6––
Buddy HieldATL@ MIA21.27.931+23.12.53+0.51.53+1.5
Isaiah HartensteinOKCvs PHXDNP7.9––7.1––3.1––
Nick RichardsCHI@ DALDNP7.9––6.3––0.7––
Nikola JovicMIAvs ATLDNP7.9––3.3––1.7––
Josh OkogieHOUvs MEM21.57.93−4.93.54+0.51.72+0.3
Micah PeavyNOP@ MIN40.57.921+13.13.24+0.81.63+1.4
DeJon JarreauMEM@ HOUDNP7.9––4.5––3.0––
Cameron PaynePHIvs MILDNP7.8––2.3––2.6––
Blake WesleyPORvs SAC1.47.80−7.82.00−2.02.50−2.5
Nae'Qwan TomlinCLEvs WAS36.37.826+18.24.58+3.51.15+3.9
Isaiah JacksonLACvs GSWDNP7.8––5.3––1.4––
Norchad OmierLACvs GSWDNP7.8––4.3––1.1––
Caris LeVertDET@ IND14.27.86−1.82.60−2.63.00−3.0
DaRon Holmes IIDEN@ SAN4.17.80−7.83.11−2.11.30−1.3
Dominick BarlowPHIvs MIL19.57.77−0.75.03−2.01.42+0.7
Jaylin WilliamsOKCvs PHXDNP7.7––6.0––2.4––
Taelon PeterINDvs DET14.17.63−4.62.42−0.41.60−1.6
Doug McDermottSAC@ POR25.47.67−0.61.93+1.11.40−1.4
Jevon CarterORL@ BOS14.47.63−4.62.12−0.12.10−2.1
Dru SmithMIAvs ATLDNP7.6––2.9––3.0––
Cam ChristieLACvs GSWDNP7.6––3.1––1.3––
Antonio ReevesCHA@ NYKDNP7.5––2.4––1.0––
MarJon BeauchampPHIvs MIL2.47.53−4.52.91−1.91.30−1.3
Bronny JamesLALvs UTA18.57.511+3.51.81−0.82.34+1.7
Robert Williams IIIPORvs SAC22.37.56−1.58.110+1.91.11−0.1
Baylor ScheiermanBOSvs ORL38.57.530+22.53.77+3.31.97+5.2
Grant WilliamsCHA@ NYK20.57.58+0.53.86+2.21.62+0.5
Asa NewellATL@ MIA38.57.517+9.63.111+7.91.02+1.0
Leaky BlackWAS@ CLE9.27.40−7.45.01−4.01.71−0.7
Hansen YangPORvs SAC1.47.40−7.43.71−2.71.10−1.1
Kenrich WilliamsOKCvs PHX32.57.413+5.64.59+4.51.38+6.7
Oso IghodaroPHX@ OKC13.37.42−5.45.56+0.52.75+2.3
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA@ NYK20.47.49+1.65.45−0.41.22+0.8
Keaton WallaceATL@ MIA32.17.38+0.72.44+1.62.46+3.6
Aaron HolidayHOUvs MEM19.57.37−0.31.83+1.21.72+0.3
Jeremy SochanNYKvs CHA19.47.312+4.74.56+1.51.45+3.6
Jamal SheadTORvs BKN20.17.36−1.32.11−1.14.94−0.9
Julian PhillipsMINvs NOP26.37.316+8.73.01−2.01.11−0.1
Riley MinixCLEvs WAS25.17.312+4.73.11−2.11.31−0.3
Terance MannBKN@ TORDNP7.2––3.3––2.2––
Tyus JonesDEN@ SAN20.57.25−2.21.85+3.23.24+0.8
Jamaree BouyeaPHX@ OKC39.47.227+19.82.35+2.72.29+6.8
Bogdan BogdanovicLACvs GSW20.47.217+9.82.33+0.72.10−2.1
Kris DunnLACvs GSW22.17.24−3.23.41−2.43.73−0.7
Kasparas JakucionisMIAvs ATL19.37.28+0.82.73+0.32.95+2.1
Karlo MatkovicNOP@ MINDNP7.2––4.2––1.1––
Drew TimmeLALvs UTA7.17.23−4.22.50−2.51.62+0.4
Jayson KentPORvs SAC1.47.20−7.23.90−3.91.00−1.0
Kyle AndersonMINvs NOPDNP7.1––3.6––3.3––
Kelly OlynykSANvs DENDNP7.1––3.3––2.2––
KJ SimpsonDEN@ SANDNP7.1––2.3––2.8––
Caleb HoustanATL@ MIADNP7.0––3.1––1.2––
Tyrese MartinPHIvs MIL1.37.00−7.02.50−2.51.50−1.5
Jordan WalshBOSvs ORL33.17.09+2.03.98+4.11.23+1.8
Dylan CardwellSAC@ POR20.57.06−1.07.58+0.51.70−1.7
Killian HayesSAC@ POR25.57.09+2.02.92−0.94.03−1.0
Alex AntetokounmpoMIL@ PHI4.16.98+1.13.62−1.61.10−1.1
Luke KornetSANvs DENDNP6.9––5.6––2.0––
A.J. LawsonTORvs BKN10.46.810+3.13.50−3.50.90−0.9
Tony BradleyATL@ MIA21.56.84−2.84.85+0.20.82+1.2
Tristan EnarunaCLEvs WAS27.46.815+8.23.13−0.11.13+1.9
Pat ConnaughtonCHA@ NYKDNP6.8––3.4––1.0––
Trey AlexanderNOP@ MIN32.06.816+9.22.51−1.51.61−0.6
Mike ConleyMINvs NOPDNP6.8––2.0––3.3––
Sidy CissokoPORvs SAC1.46.80−6.82.40−2.41.90−1.9
Moussa CisseDALvs CHI40.56.817+10.29.920+10.10.71+0.3
Liam McNeeleyCHA@ NYK4.26.80−6.83.41−2.41.01−0.0
Ron Harper Jr.BOSvs ORL36.46.727+20.32.67+4.41.14+2.9
Kobe BufkinLALvs UTADNP6.7––2.1––1.8––
Jalen PickettDEN@ SAN29.56.711+4.32.53+0.62.36+3.7
Alex MoralesORL@ BOSDNP6.7––2.4––2.1––
AJ JohnsonDALvs CHI25.16.720+13.32.31−1.32.11−1.1
Andre DrummondPHIvs MIL22.36.712+5.38.112+3.91.83+1.2
JD DavisonHOUvs MEM26.36.79+2.32.610+7.42.47+4.6
Alex CarusoOKCvs PHXDNP6.7––2.9––2.0––
Trayce Jackson-DavisTORvs BKN5.26.64−2.65.04−1.01.50−1.5
Jeff GreenHOUvs MEM24.16.66−0.63.35+1.71.21−0.2
Adem BonaPHIvs MIL17.16.64−2.64.82−2.81.00−1.0
Rasheer FlemingPHX@ OKC38.06.616+9.43.26+2.80.82+1.2
Kris MurrayPORvs SAC30.16.69+2.43.64+0.41.73+1.3
Will RichardGSW@ LAC20.36.50−6.52.72−0.71.41−0.4
Sion JamesCHA@ NYK21.36.58+1.53.75+1.32.42−0.4
Lachlan OlbrichCHI@ DAL30.46.510+3.56.015+9.01.910+8.1
Myron GardnerMIAvs ATL6.06.52−4.54.62−2.61.43+1.6
Lindy Waters IIISANvs DENDNP6.5––2.5––1.3––
Pacome DadietNYKvs CHA27.26.512+5.53.64+0.41.42+0.6
Chris YoungbloodPORvs SACDNP6.5––2.8––1.6––
Curtis JonesDEN@ SAN31.56.413+6.62.65+2.42.23+0.8
Hugo GonzalezBOSvs ORLDNP6.4––4.1––1.1––
Payton SandfortOKCvs PHX28.16.423+16.63.34+0.70.80−0.8
Jordan McLaughlinSANvs DEN1.56.42−4.42.21−1.22.21−1.2
Harrison IngramSANvs DENDNP6.4––3.3––1.2––
Ariel HukportiNYKvs CHA30.06.48+1.64.89+4.21.11−0.1
Mouhamadou GueyeCHI@ DAL28.46.411+4.63.53−0.51.44+2.5
Vladislav GoldinMIAvs ATL2.56.43−3.43.52−1.51.10−1.1
Dalen TerryPHIvs MIL4.16.32−4.32.22−0.22.20−2.2
Andre Jackson Jr.MIL@ PHI29.56.39+2.72.97+4.11.62+0.4
Sean PedullaLACvs GSWDNP6.3––2.6––1.8––
Olivier SarrCLEvs WAS24.16.310+3.74.46+1.61.22+0.8
Koby BreaPHX@ OKC28.46.320+13.72.35+2.71.63+1.4
CJ HuntleyPHX@ OKC29.16.310+3.72.94+1.11.11−0.1
Patrick Baldwin Jr.SAC@ PORDNP6.3––4.7––0.9––
Malevy LeonsGSW@ LAC16.56.38+1.83.02−1.01.62+0.4
Dean WadeCLEvs WASDNP6.2––4.2––1.4––
Tyler SmithDALvs CHI37.06.220+13.83.77+3.31.00−1.0
Chris ManonLALvs UTA7.16.22−4.23.32−1.31.11−0.1
Tolu SmithDET@ IND5.56.25−1.25.03−2.01.31−0.3
Thanasis AntetokounmpoMIL@ PHI27.16.28+1.83.82−1.81.56+4.5
TyTy Washington Jr.LACvs GSWDNP6.2––2.0––2.3––
John TonjeBOSvs ORL29.46.113+6.93.14+0.81.21−0.2
Alijah MartinTORvs BKNDNP6.1––2.5––1.4––
Larry Nance Jr.CLEvs WAS20.16.110+3.94.16+1.91.23+1.8
Mouhamed GueyeATL@ MIADNP6.1––4.1––1.4––
Dwight PowellDALvs CHI24.26.17+0.95.712+6.31.82+0.2
Zyon PullinMINvs NOP30.66.119+12.92.43+0.61.85+3.3
Nicolas BatumLACvs GSW22.26.09+3.03.22−1.21.32+0.7
Josh GreenCHA@ NYK10.06.03−3.02.020.01.10−1.1
Adou ThieroLALvs UTA12.06.08+2.03.34+0.71.42+0.6
Max ShulgaBOSvs ORL17.56.03−3.03.13−0.11.20−1.2
Chaz LanierDET@ IND5.56.02−4.02.40−2.41.20−1.2
Isaiah CrawfordHOUvs MEM15.56.011+5.03.36+2.71.41−0.4
Taj GibsonMEM@ HOU19.16.04−2.04.24−0.21.01−0.0
Xavier TillmanCHA@ NYKDNP6.0––3.3––1.4––
Isaac JonesDET@ IND9.36.02−4.04.00−4.01.10−1.1
Ryan DunnPHX@ OKC24.36.020+14.14.111+6.91.45+3.6
Joe InglesMINvs NOP32.25.915+9.12.46+3.62.710+7.3
Kam JonesINDvs DET19.65.98+2.12.51−1.55.24−1.2
Gary HarrisMIL@ PHIDNP5.9––1.7––1.7––
Trevor KeelsMIAvs ATL2.55.92−3.93.30−3.31.20−1.2
Hunter DickinsonNOP@ MIN20.35.96+0.12.74+1.31.12+0.8
Garrett TempleTORvs BKN4.25.93−2.92.61−1.61.51−0.5
Omer YurtsevenGSW@ LACDNP5.8––5.0––1.1––
Gabe VincentATL@ MIADNP5.8––1.6––1.9––
Amir CoffeyPHX@ OKC26.55.817+11.22.03+1.01.03+2.0
Jahmir YoungMIAvs ATL2.55.83−2.82.60−2.61.91−0.9
Bismack BiyomboSANvs DEN5.45.82−3.83.71−2.71.20−1.2
Jarred VanderbiltLALvs UTA16.25.84−1.84.94−0.91.52+0.5
Noah PendaORL@ BOSDNP5.7––3.9––1.7––
Bobi KlintmanDET@ INDDNP5.7––3.6––1.4––
Jonathan MogboTORvs BKN5.25.72−3.73.71−2.71.52+0.5
Spencer JonesDEN@ SANDNP5.7––3.2––1.0––
Khaman MaluachPHX@ OKC29.05.618+12.45.514+8.50.70−0.7
Craig Porter Jr.CLEvs WAS27.55.67+1.43.87+3.23.84+0.2
Nikola TopicOKCvs PHX39.25.618+12.42.24+1.83.814+10.2
Enrique FreemanMINvs NOP26.15.513+7.53.27+3.80.92+1.1
DeAndre JordanNOP@ MINDNP5.5––6.3––1.0––
Jae'Sean TateHOUvs MEM26.15.513+7.53.16+2.91.32+0.7
Zeke NnajiDEN@ SAN20.15.56+0.54.02−2.00.92+1.1
Trey Jemison IIINYKvs CHA17.65.54−1.44.22−2.21.02+1.0
Wendell Moore Jr.DET@ INDDNP5.4––2.4––1.1––
Colin CastletonORL@ BOSDNP5.4––4.1––1.2––
Markelle FultzTORvs BKNDNP5.3––2.0––2.8––
Clint CapelaHOUvs MEM22.65.323+17.75.713+7.31.31−0.3
Amari WilliamsBOSvs ORL9.35.32−3.34.21−3.21.01−0.0
Isaiah LiversPHX@ OKCDNP5.3––3.1––1.1––
Brooks BarnhizerOKCvs PHX25.35.35−0.33.82−1.81.21−0.2
Christian KolokoATL@ MIA21.15.14−1.13.88+4.20.91+0.1
Kyle LowryPHIvs MIL4.55.10−5.11.70−1.72.00−2.0
Yuki KawamuraCHI@ DAL14.55.014+9.02.32−0.33.01−2.0
Dillon JonesNYKvs CHA12.15.02−3.03.21−2.21.50−1.5
Dorian Finney-SmithHOUvs MEM20.64.79+4.32.92−0.91.31−0.3
Maxi KleberLALvs UTA15.14.62−2.63.26+2.81.10−1.1
Mason PlumleeSANvs DEN15.44.52−2.54.43−1.41.51−0.5
Kevon LooneyNOP@ MINDNP4.5––6.6––1.7––

Δ is actual minus predicted. Colour is the absolute error against this date's MAE for the same target: within one MAE, within two, beyond two (this date's MAE: points 6.02, rebounds 2.26, assists 1.72). Greyed rows were slated but have no box score (DNP: did not play); their predictions are kept and they are excluded from the MAE.

Source: https://huggingface.co/datasets/cbratkovics/nba-game-logs/resolve/main/replay/2025-26/slates/2026-04-12.json